Will Mets build on hot start, or continue falling back to pack?

It is interesting looking at the difference in mood around the New York Yankees and the New York Mets.

The teams have the same amount of wins heading into the final days of June, getting ready for the dog days of summer.

But the fans of the Bronx Bombers want Aaron Boone sent packing from the dugout, and maybe Brian Cashman as well, while the Mets’ fans have been pretty happy with their team so far, although that could change in an instant with the team just starting to struggle.

The sportsbooks are not giving up on the Yankees just yet, though: somehow, New York has better odds to win the American League pennant than the three teams ahead of it in the AL East. The Yankees have odds of +500 to win the pennant, only behind the Chicago White Sox (odds of +300) and the Houston Astros (odds of +333 by Pointsbet IL), and ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays (+550).

If you take a look at the AL East standings, the Yankees sit in fourth place as of June 29, 7.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox and 6.5 behind the Rays. New York also trails the Toronto Blue Jays by a game. The Yankees (odds of +275) are the third choice to win the AL East, with the Rays (+150) and Red Sox (+175) the two favorites.

So how are the Yankees still the third choice to win the pennant, when they are only the third choice to win the AL East?

Most of the sports books, and bettors, expect the Yankees to go out at the deadline and make a trade to improve their team, even though it has not happened in past seasons. Maybe the books are still afraid that this team can get hot and reel off 10 wins in a row, getting itself in position to contend down the stretch.

I do not see it, but that might just be me. I had the Rays winning the AL pennant last season before the season, and continued to back them as they dominated the shortened campaign.

Right now, I would back the Rays at +550 and the Astros at +333, and throw out the Yankees: how can you bet on a team that is hovering around .500 and is not any good?

In the National League, the Mets have been very good, but do not score runs. It is something that has started to catch up to New York over the last few weeks, as it has fallen back towards the pack in the NL (L)East.

Washington has finally started playing well, and you have to think Atlanta will wake up at some point. The sports books still have the Mets as heavy favorites (odds of -400) to win the division, with Atlanta second choice at +700. Washington might be a value play at this point, with the Nationals +1100 to win the NL East despite sitting in second place.

If you asked me right now which New York team has the best shot to make the playoffs, I would say the Mets, with my second choice the Buffalo (Toronto) Blue Jays.

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